The final decision rests with the country's president, writes BNNBloomberg .

The gist in brief

• The commission supported a temporary restart of Cobre Panama so that mining revenue could pay for the mine's orderly closure.
• The mine has been halted since 2023 and accounted for about 1% of global copper output.
• According to Reuters, another option is also being discussed: a restart through a joint venture with a state entity, in which First Quantum could receive 60-65%.
• First Quantum shares in Toronto fell by as much as 30% on the day of the recommendations.

What the commission recommended

According to Bloomberg, the commission supported a temporary launch of the mine to finance its closure, proposed a controlled shutdown of the operation and the settlement of all arbitration claims filed by the company against the government. First Quantum said it is ready to work constructively on a fair and transparent legal framework and is awaiting government guidance on next steps. Trade Minister Julio Molto emphasized that these are recommendations, not a final decision.

Why the mine is idle

Cobre Panama was halted in 2023 after Panama's Supreme Court ruled its 20-year operating contract unconstitutional. The mine was accompanied by protests from environmentalists and nationalists, who pointed to the risk to the fragile tropical ecosystem. Before the halt, the mine produced more than 330,000 tonnes of copper per year, about 5% of the country's GDP and roughly 40% of First Quantum's revenue. A government study published in September showed that the closure cost the country more than 30,000 jobs and almost $1.4 billion in taxes and royalties.

What options are on the table

In parallel, Reuters, citing two anonymous sources, reported another idea: to restart the mine through a joint venture with a state entity, with First Quantum's stake potentially amounting to 60-65%. According to the sources, an agreement with the company has yet to be negotiated, and the data itself has not been confirmed. A state participant could help circumvent the 2023 law that bans new mining concessions.

What this means for the copper market

Copper prices are holding near historic highs, and the return or final departure of such a mine affects the market balance. This is also a relevant topic for Kazakhstan: the country wants to double copper output by 2030, and the Ministry of Industry is working on an export duty on copper concentrate so that Kazakhmys receives raw material. The country's copper reserves are also growing: in 2024-2025, the increase amounted to 122,700 tonnes, but registering reserves is not the same as mining them.

Author's takeaway

The commission's recommendations and the joint venture idea differ from each other, and it is still unclear which option the president will choose. For the copper market, the signal is that no one is yet promising a full return of Cobre Panama to its former state.