Poland plans to launch its first nuclear power plant in 2036, and the second in 2040

The first station using American Westinghouse technology is scheduled to enter commercial operation in 2036, the second around 2040. 60.2 billion zlotys has been allocated for the first project for 2025-2030, reports the publication Atomic Energy 2.0.

The gist in brief

• The first nuclear power plant in the Pomeranian Voivodeship will consist of three Westinghouse AP1000 units with a total capacity of 3,750 MW; it will reach full capacity in 2038.
• This is three years later than the 2021 plan, when the launch was expected in 2033, but the authorities announced the 2036 date back at the end of 2024.
• 60.2 billion zlotys, about $15.4 billion, has been allocated for the recapitalization of the first station project in 2025-2030.
• For the second station, the technology and strategic partner will be chosen in 2027, and construction will begin around 2032.

What was approved

The Council of Ministers of Poland adopted an updated national nuclear energy program. It provides for two stations with a total capacity of up to 9 GW. The first will be built in Lubiatowo and Kopalino in the Choczewo commune in the Pomeranian Voivodeship: three AP1000 units with a total capacity of 3,750 MW. The first unit will enter commercial operation in 2036, with full capacity in 2038.

For the second station, the preferred sites are Belchatow and Konin; the final choice will be made by the investor after studies. The United States, France, and Canada are participating in the competitive dialogue on technology. The Ministry of Energy wants to choose a comprehensive offer that covers both technology and financing.

How much it costs

60.2 billion zlotys, about $15.4 billion, has been allocated for the recapitalization of the first station project in 2025-2030. According to the estimate cited by the publication Brussels Signal, the construction of the first station will cost approximately $20 billion. Polish companies may receive about 40% of the cost of the first reactor, and for subsequent units the share may grow to 70%.

Why the deadlines shifted

Initially, according to the 2021 plan, the first reactor was to be launched in 2033. The authorities announced the 2036 date back at the end of 2024, explaining at the time that the country was not yet ready to simultaneously carry out financing, construction, operation, and regulation of three AP1000 units. The new program consolidates this schedule and shifts the launch of the second station by a year compared to the previous schedule.

According to Brussels Signal, the government also conducted an audit of the previous 2020 program and revised the agreements with the American consortium for the first station. The opposition Law and Justice party criticizes the delays and believes that the government is slowing down priority projects.

Other projects

In addition to the two large stations, other projects are also being developed in Poland. A station with a Korean APR1400 reactor is planned in Pątnów: the company PGE PAK Energia Jądrowa, created by ZE PAK and PGE, received a preliminary decision from the ministry in November 2023. The company SGE plans to build up to 26 small modular BWRX-300 reactors.

What this means for Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan also has its first nuclear power plant. In early September, Kazakhstan Nuclear Power Plants LLP and Atomstroyexport, a subsidiary of Rosatom, signed a contract for the design, supply, and construction of the first station. According to Rosatom, this concerns the Balkhash nuclear power plant: two VVER-1200 units with a total capacity of 2.4 GW near the village of Ulken in the Almaty region.

The head of the Atomic Energy Agency, Almasadam Satkaliyev, estimated the project at approximately $15 billion in April and called the amounts indicative, and in May, according to a report by The Moscow Times, he spoke of $16.4 billion for two units. The financing envisages a Russian export loan. According to The Moscow Times, the first unit is to become operational in 2034, while Rosatom indicates that engineering surveys will be completed only in 2027, after which preparation of documents for a construction license will begin. The Polish experience shows how quickly first dates can shift: there, over three years, the schedule for the first station moved from 2033 to 2036.

There is also an indirect connection through the uranium market, where Kazakhstan is the largest supplier. In 2024, the country mined 23,270 tonnes of uranium, more than a third of global production.

Author's conclusion

The new program does not add speed to Polish nuclear energy: the key deadlines remained the same, and only the second station shifted. But it does lock in the money and the schedule, and now Poland is expected to make concrete decisions on technology and a partner for the second project in 2027.