"Negative growth" of runoff: Southern Kazakhstan risks being left without water in the 2026 season

While officials search for new wording to smooth over the rough edges in reports, objective satellite monitoring data points to an alarming trend. The winter season of 2025–2026 is showing critically low moisture accumulation levels, threatening the food security of the country's southern regions as early as this summer.

IN SHORT

• Precipitation deficit: In the upper reaches of the Syr Darya (Tien Shan, Naryn, Karadarya), negative snow water equivalents have been recorded for the third consecutive year.
• Risks for the agro-industrial sector: A record low of irrigation water is expected for the Turkestan and Kyzylorda regions.
• Historical parallels: The situation is reminiscent of the dry years of 2008, 2011, 2018, and 2021.
• Forecast of actions: There is a high probability that the relevant ministries will again switch to a "firefighting" mode and hold emergency meetings only by May-June.

Satellite Data: Winter Below Normal

The water resource situation is developing according to a pessimistic scenario. Analysis of satellite imagery reveals a picture that, unfortunately, is becoming familiar, but is no less dangerous for it. The winter of 2025–2026 is proceeding with indicators significantly below normal, both in terms of snow cover and precipitation amounts in strategically important areas — the upper reaches of the Syr Darya River.

This concerns the basins of the Naryn and Karadarya rivers and the Tien Shan mountain system. It is here that the main spring runoff is formed, which feeds the irrigated lands of the Turkestan and Kyzylorda regions during the growing season.

Observations record that snow water equivalents have remained negative for the third year in a row. Precipitation at the beginning of winter was also below the long-term average. The combination of these factors will inevitably lead to a record low of water available for irrigation in the summer period of 2026.

Lessons from the Past: What Farmers Should Prepare For

The current indicators bring to mind the crisis seasons of previous years. By analogy with 2008, 2011, 2018, and 2021, the region risks facing an official declaration of water scarcity.

The scenario of events in such years is typically identical:

• disruptions in water supply through main canals;
• early drying up of pasturelands;
• strict reduction of quotas for water-intensive crops (primarily rice and cotton).

Entering the 2026 agricultural season looks extremely problematic. Of course, there remains a faint hope that the end of January and February will bring heavy snowfall that could compensate for the current deficit, but relying solely on a weather miracle is a risky strategy.

Government Readiness: Plan or Reaction?

Against the backdrop of ironic talk that officials will find a solution to problems in new terminology — calling a deficit a "reverse surplus" and farmers' losses "sub-positive profit" — the main question arises: are the relevant departments prepared for a real crisis?

Do the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan have a clear action plan for a low-water period? How will water consumption be controlled with the predicted "negative growth" of the runoff?

Editorial Conclusion

It is already obvious that water will become the main limiting factor for the economic development of southern Kazakhstan in 2026. Judging by the experience of past years, instead of preventive measures, we will most likely see the traditional bureaucratic cycle: a lack of reaction in winter and emergency meetings in Astana in May-June, when the problem becomes irreversible. Negotiations with neighboring countries on additional water releases will begin "after the fact," in an emergency mode. Hunn.kz will continue to monitor updates on hydrological data.