The Tasqyn system was put into operation without explaining the accuracy criteria.

During a briefing at the Central Communications Service, representatives of the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation were unable to answer the question of what criteria were used to accept the system into commercial operation.

The situation looks particularly notable against the backdrop of ongoing discussions about the accuracy of digital forecasts and the effectiveness of government IT solutions in water resource management.

In Brief

·        Tasqyn was put into commercial operation in February 2025.

·        According to the FBRK, the system identified 182 populated areas as high-risk flood zones.

·        In reality, floods affected only 16 populated areas, of which only 14 were featured in Tasqyn's forecasts.

·        Representatives of the Ministry of Water Resources could not name the criteria by which the system was approved for operation.

·        Journalists were directed to the developers and the Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development for clarification.

Questions Raised at Briefing on Digitalization

On June 24, a briefing dedicated to the digitalization and automation of water resource management was held at the CCS.

The event was attended by Vice Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Aslan Abdraimov, Chairman of the Board of the Information and Analytical Center for Water Resources Khairulla Kairatgali, and Director of the Ministry's Digitalization Department Yerdaulet Zhumat.

Founder of the Corruption Investigation Bureau Foundation (FBRK) Kirill Pavlov asked officials a question about the effectiveness of the Tasqyn system and the parameters based on which the decision was made for its industrial implementation.

What Doesn't Add Up in the Forecasts

According to Pavlov, the published data on the system's performance raises questions.

According to the information provided, Tasqyn in 2025 identified 182 populated areas as territories with a high risk of flooding. However, water actually arrived in only 16 of them. Moreover, only 14 of these populated areas were featured in the system's own forecasts.

The journalist also cited data on cases where discrepancies between the predicted and actual water levels reached four meters.

In this regard, a direct question was asked: what performance indicators were used when making the decision to put Tasqyn into commercial operation, and who signed the relevant acceptance certificate.

No Answer to the Main Question

Vice Minister Aslan Abdraimov stated that 2025 was the first full operational period for the system and that digital forecasting tools in Kazakhstan are still in their formative stages.

According to him, after the 2026 flood season, it can be said that the main forecast trends were correctly identified, although individual deviations were indeed recorded.

As confirmation of the system's effectiveness, the official cited the fact that the country managed to avoid emergency discharges from reservoirs and accumulate the expected volumes of water.

However, a repeated question about the specific acceptance criteria for Tasqyn remained unanswered.

Ministry of Water Resources Turns Out to Be Just a User of the System

The most unexpected moment of the discussion was the statement that the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation does not possess all the technical parameters of Tasqyn's operation.

According to Abdraimov, the department acts as a user of the system, and questions about its technical characteristics should be addressed to the Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development or directly to the developers.

In effect, representatives of the relevant ministry could not explain by what indicators the system's readiness for commercial operation was assessed.

This Is Not the First Attempt to Get Answers

Questions about the accuracy of Tasqyn have been raised before.

Back in April 2026, the FBRK attempted to discuss the system's performance at another CCS briefing dedicated to water conservation issues. However, the moderator dismissed the question at the time, citing its irrelevance to the meeting's topic.

Later, the ministry sent a written response, which described Tasqyn's functionality in detail and stated that the system uses data from Kazhydromet for flood forecasting.

At the same time, specific accuracy indicators were not provided. The department promised to return to assessing the system's effectiveness after the end of the flood season.

In a subsequent response, the ministry also reported that another modeling system, Talsim-NG, was undergoing its first so-called "combat season" on eight of the country's river basins.

Why This Matters

The story surrounding Tasqyn raises a broader question about the transparency of government digital projects.

If a system is used for decision-making in such a sensitive area as flood forecasting and protecting populated areas from inundation, the public has the right to understand what indicators are considered sufficient for its implementation and how accurate its forecasts are in practice.

For now, the key question remains unanswered: by what specific criteria was the Tasqyn system deemed ready for commercial operation.

The FBRK editorial board has sent an official request to the Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan, asking them to disclose the system's technical parameters and its acceptance criteria.