Agrarian miracle" or statistics? How NANOC invented "gross seed harvest
NANOC reported producing 60,000 tons of seeds worth over 12 billion tenge. The agency uses the term "gross seed harvest," but in agronomy, this does not exist — it is raw grain that loses up to 50% of its weight during cleaning.
Latest news from the world of domestic agricultural science raises questions among experts. The National Agrarian Scientific and Educational Center (NASEC) reported record figures in seed production, but upon closer examination of the numbers, it turned out that the reports use terminology that contradicts global agronomy standards.
IN SHORT:
- Claim: NASEC reported the production of 60 thousand tons of seeds worth over 12 billion tenge.
- Detail: The agency's official response uses the term "Gross harvest of seeds."
- Problem: In agronomy, a gross harvest of seeds does not exist — this is raw grain, which loses up to 50% of its weight during cleaning.
- Conclusion: Either Kazakhstan has made a scientific breakthrough, surpassing global giants like Monsanto, or the statistics are being kept incorrectly.
12 billion and the "sacred number"
Recently, NASEC announced a significant achievement: the production of 60 thousand tons of seeds. In monetary terms, this is estimated at over 12 billion tenge. Such figures could indicate that Kazakhstan's agricultural science has achieved self-sufficiency and is ready to bring dividends to the state.
However, the figure of 60 thousand tons seemed suspiciously round to industry experts. To clarify the details, an official request was sent to NASEC. After lengthy correspondence and complaints, the agency provided a table in which the second column was titled "GROSS HARVEST OF SEEDS".
[INSERT SCREENSHOT OF NASEC TABLE FROM THE POST]
Why agronomists are laughing: a primer
For readers far from agriculture, it is worth explaining the absurdity of the phrase "gross harvest of seeds."
Seed production is a process resembling a funnel, where the volume of product decreases at each stage:
- Gross harvest: The combine collects everything that grew from the field. This is raw mass.
- Drying and processing: The grain is sent to a bin, where it loses moisture and weight during drying.
- Approbation and calibration: The grain is cleaned, calibrated, and low-quality, small, and weedy material is sifted out. Everything sifted out goes to feed (livestock fodder) and waste.
Normally, waste amounts to 30–40%. In unfavorable years, the yield of high-quality (conditioned) seeds can be less than 50% of what was collected from the field.
Conditioned seeds are only the grain that has passed all stages of cleaning, meets standards, and received a certificate.
Kazakhstan cooler than Monsanto?
The term "gross harvest of seeds" used by NASEC implies that 100% of the crop collected from the field miraculously turned into elite seeds without losses or waste.
If we believe this logic, Kazakh science has made a global breakthrough. For comparison: global biotech giants such as Bayer (Monsanto) or Syngenta have a seed yield of 70–75%. Kazakhstan's figure of 100% looks like a "know-how" unattainable for the rest of the world.
Instead of a conclusion
If NASEC's calculation methodology is correct, it should be immediately implemented in other industries. For example, in livestock farming: calculating the yield of minced meat as 100% of the live weight of a cow (including horns and hooves).
For now, the question remains open: are we truly witnessing a scientific breakthrough, or is this another example of desired figures being adjusted to fit beautiful reports on paper?
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