By 2036, the number of infertile women over 35 could approach 80 million — The Lancet study

According to a study published in the journal The Lancet Obstetrics, Gynaecology & Women's Health, if current trends continue, by 2036 the number of such women will reach 79.6 million, an increase of nearly 49% compared to 2023. The authors attribute this not only to the biological characteristics of reproductive age but also to changing social patterns, as women increasingly delay having their first child.

In Brief

·        In 2023, approximately 53.6 million women aged 35–49 suffered from infertility.

·        By 2036, this number could increase to 79.6 million.

·        The main growth is expected in high-income countries.

·        The greatest need for infertility assistance remains in Asia.

·        Scientists are calling for infertility diagnosis and treatment services to be made more accessible.

Infertility is becoming an increasingly serious global problem

The study is based on data from the Global Burden of Disease 2023 project, covering 204 countries and territories. The authors analyzed the dynamics of infertility among women aged 35–49 from 1990 to 2023 and calculated a forecast up to 2036.

According to the researchers' estimates, 53.6 million women in this age group already suffer from infertility. If current trends continue, in ten years their number will increase by almost half — to 79.6 million, and the associated disease burden on healthcare systems will rise by approximately 50%.

Why the problem is growing

The authors emphasize that more and more women are deciding to have their first child at a later age. This is linked to education, career building, economic factors, and changing family models.

However, after age 35, natural fertility begins to decline, and after age 40, this process accelerates significantly. As a result, the number of women requiring medical assistance to achieve pregnancy, including the use of assisted reproductive technologies, is increasing.

The researchers also note that the center of gravity of the problem is gradually shifting towards high-income countries, where women more often delay motherhood. At the same time, the highest demand for reproductive medicine services today remains in Asia.

Scientists call for expanding access to treatment

The study authors believe that the growing number of patients requires a revision of approaches to organizing medical care.

In their view, infertility diagnosis and treatment should become part of the primary healthcare system, and states need to reduce financial barriers for patients and more actively implement digital services for reproductive health support.

What this means for Kazakhstan

For Kazakhstan, the study's findings have not only medical but also demographic significance. As in many countries, the age at first childbirth is gradually increasing, and along with this, the demand for reproductive medicine services is rising.

Against the backdrop of the implementation of state programs supporting in vitro fertilization and the development of specialized reproductive health centers, the issue of early infertility diagnosis is becoming increasingly important. The Lancet study shows that delaying childbirth is becoming a global trend, meaning the healthcare system needs to prepare in advance for the growing need for relevant medical care.

Author's Conclusion

The study shows that the problem of infertility is increasingly moving beyond being purely a medical issue. It is becoming part of the demographic, social, and economic agenda. As women decide to have children later in life, the importance of accessible reproductive medicine, awareness of age-related fertility characteristics, and state support for families grows. For Kazakhstan, these issues will also become increasingly relevant in the coming years.