Climate goals don’t work without global money. Why states will have to negotiate with private capital

Private capital will not come to climate action on its own — it must be deliberately summoned. According to Climate Home News, even the most ambitious climate plans of the economic crisis (NDCs) are unattainable where there are no sectoral roadmaps, clear regulatory conditions, and dialogue between countries and business. The experience of Brazil and Indonesia shows that the gap between climate declarations and real investments can be bridged, but only if the government and the private sector move in the same rhythm. For Kazakhstan, which updated its NDC in 2025, this is a direct guide to the next step.

The Gist

• Most NDCs still lack the sectoral plans, economic incentives, political certainty, and infrastructure investments needed to attract business.
• According to a preliminary UN assessment, global emissions by 2035 will only decrease by 12% from 2019 levels — whereas keeping warming within 1.5°C requires a reduction of 60%.
• Brazil has developed a detailed sectoral plan, Plano Clima, covering energy, transport, and land use — experts call it a model for other countries.
• Indonesia, despite a promised $20 billion in international support, has backed away from the early closure of a coal-fired power plant — due to a lack of political certainty for investors.
• Key takeaway: governments need not just to declare goals, but to create "bankable" projects with predictable returns, clear permits, and management of currency risks.

Why Private Capital Isn't Flowing into Climate

"If you only have a high-level NDC goal in a vacuum, it won't spur business into action," explains Greg Briner, Senior Policy Manager at the We Mean Business Coalition. "But that goal combined with specific sectoral policies and measures — that's where the real magic begins."

The problem is systemic: companies are ready to invest in decarbonization, but they need predictability. Uncertainty in the regulatory environment makes it impossible to calculate risks — and therefore to make an investment decision. Meanwhile, the economics of decarbonization have changed dramatically over the past 20 years: if clean energy was once considered an expensive addition, today it is simply more profitable from a commercial standpoint — especially against the backdrop of geopolitical turmoil in oil and gas markets.

Brazil: How a Sectoral Plan Changes the Investment Climate

The Brazilian experience is the most illustrative example of how a state can create conditions for private capital. The country's climate strategy — Plano Clima — includes a series of sectoral plans in energy, transport, and land use, developed over years. Business received not just a figure in the NDC, but a roadmap: what will be built, in which sector, and under what conditions.

The result was not long in coming: a transport coalition of over 50 associations, companies, and academic institutions presented a plan to reduce emissions in the sector and attract over $600 billion in green investments.

However, even here, not everything is smooth. Natalie Unterstell from the Brazilian analytical center Talanoa Institute points to a key contradiction: "Both sides are now waiting for stronger signals from each other. That's why resolving this coordination problem is key." The state waits for business to move first. Business waits for the state to create the rules. The circle is closed.

Indonesia: The Price of Political Uncertainty

The Indonesian case is an anti-example. Despite a promised more than $20 billion in international financial support under the "Just Energy Transition Partnership" program, Jakarta has backed away from the plan to prematurely close a key coal-fired power plant.

The reason is precisely what experts warned about: a lack of political certainty.

"Any investor wants to understand a country's long-term risks in order to properly assess them and develop a strategy to mitigate them. Uncertain policies effectively deprive investors of the ability to manage risks," explained Fabby Tumiwa from the Indonesian Institute for Essential Services Reform.

The formula he proposes is concrete: investors need not just goals — they need predictable revenue, reliable energy buyers, permits, grid access, currency risk management, and policy stability.

The 'Ambition Loop' as a Way Out of the Impasse

The We Mean Business Coalition proposes the concept of an "ambition loop": business takes the lead in reducing emissions, and governments create policies that accelerate private sector action.

Without stronger policies and incentives, achieving NDC goals will become increasingly difficult and expensive.

"A mobilization of all forces is really needed now," said Briner from the We Mean Business Coalition. "We need all sides to work together and try to see this through, because there is no alternative."

The Kazakhstan Context

Kazakhstan presented an updated NDC in April 2025 with a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 35% by 2035. However, the mechanism for attracting private capital to achieve these goals remains opaque. Renewable energy auctions are working, but they only cover electricity generation. Industrial decarbonization, transport, and agriculture — sectors in Kazakhstan that still lack sectoral climate roadmaps with parameters understandable to investors.

The experience of Brazil and Indonesia provides a concrete benchmark: the next step after declaring a goal is the development of sectoral plans with specific regulatory conditions, public-private dialogue at the policy development stage, and the creation of "bankable" project structures. Without this, the NDC remains a document for international reporting, not a tool for real change.

Author's Conclusion

Climate goals without private money are architecture without a foundation. Global experience shows: the state cannot and should not bear the entire burden of the green transition alone. But private capital does not come in response to a call — it comes for rules, predictability, and projects with calculated returns. Kazakhstan, having updated its climate commitments, must follow this very path: from a figure in the NDC to a concrete investment architecture. Brazil and Indonesia have already shown — how it should be done and how it should not.