Green electricity cost Kazakhstan 71 billion tenge per quarter — but the price is slowly decreasing

As reported by Inbusiness, the average price of a green kilowatt-hour — 35.17 tenge — is twice as expensive as traditional coal generation, but cheaper than Russian imports. Against the backdrop of a record increase in wind generation by 29.3%, the price of RES is gradually decreasing — competition through auctions is working.

The Gist Briefly

• In Q1 2026, the single purchaser (RFC) bought 2 billion kWh of green electricity for 71.1 billion tenge — the average price was ~35.17 tenge/kWh excluding VAT.
• For comparison: traditional coal and gas generation cost ~16.1 tenge/kWh, while Russian imports cost 71.2 tenge/kWh.
• The share of RES in the single purchaser's expenditures was 17.9%, with a share in physical production of about 7% — this reflects the systemic premium for green energy.
• Wind generation grew by 29.3% year-on-year in the quarter, with total RES output increasing by 20.9%. The growth in volumes is putting downward pressure on the average price.
• The total expenditures of the single purchaser in Q1 amounted to 396.8 billion tenge: traditional generation — 72.2%, RES — 17.9%, imports — 9.9%.

What is the "Overpayment" for RES and Why It Is Inevitable

The phrasing "overpaid" requires clarification. Kazakhstan's RES support system is built on a guaranteed purchase mechanism: the single purchaser is obliged to buy all the output from renewable energy facilities that have long-term contracts — at agreed or auction prices — on a priority basis and regardless of current market demand.

This is standard global practice for supporting green generation in its initial phase: new technologies require guaranteed income to attract investment. The difference between the RES price and the price of traditional generation is the very "overpayment" that consumers bear through tariffs. In Q1 2026, it amounted to about 19 tenge per green kWh.

Good News: The Price Is Falling

Amid the general discussion about the high cost of RES, it is important to note a positive trend. The average price of a green kWh in Q1 2026 — 35.17 tenge — is lower than the average annual figure for 2025 of 36.6 tenge. The decline occurred for two reasons.

First, auctions are working. Projects that have gone through competitive bidding sign contracts at lower prices than facilities from direct negotiations. As the share of auction projects in the single purchaser's portfolio grows, the average purchase price decreases.

Second, wind is cheaper than solar. Wind generation in Q1 grew by 29.3% year-on-year. Wind turbines in Kazakhstan traditionally have lower auction prices than solar panels. A larger volume of wind output pulls the average price down.

Comparison with Imports Changes the Assessment

The figures become even more interesting when compared with imports. Russian electricity cost the Kazakh market 71.2 tenge/kWh — twice as much as green generation. Uzbek imports, on the other hand, came in at 21.1 tenge/kWh — comparable to coal generation.

This is context that often falls out of the discussion about the "high cost" of RES: green generation is indeed more expensive than Kazakh coal, but cheaper than Russian imports, which the country is forced to purchase to balance the power system. As domestic RES capacity grows, dependence on expensive Russian imports will decrease.

Market Structure: RES Pays Disproportionately Much

An indicator requiring separate consideration: RES produced about 7% of the country's electricity — but accounted for 17.9% of the single purchaser's expenditures. This ratio reflects the systemic cost of supporting green energy and will change as auction prices decrease and volumes grow.

For comparison: traditional stations provided the vast majority of output with a monetary share of 72.2% of expenditures. Competitive bidding for traditional generation also has an effect: based on its results, the price was about 13 tenge/kWh — significantly lower than priority purchases under investment agreements.

Author's Conclusion

71 billion tenge per quarter is not an overpayment in the literal sense, but the price of the energy transition that Kazakhstan is paying deliberately, attracting investments in green generation through the guaranteed purchase mechanism. The question is not whether RES is expensive now — it is, and that is objective. The question is how quickly auction competition will bring this price down to parity with traditional generation. The downward trend already exists. It needs to be accelerated.