Super-El Niño threatens California with record sea levels.

The El Niño forming this year, which is already being linked to losses for African agriculture, could bring yet another record — this time on the opposite side of the Pacific Ocean, writes Shazoo.ru.

The gist

• The peak of the developing El Niño is expected in December 2026 at around 4°C — a record figure exceeding all previous episodes.
• Director of the Scripps Center for Climate Change Impacts Mark Merrifield said California is likely to see the highest sea levels ever recorded on its coast.
• Sea levels in the eastern Pacific are already more than 15 cm above average, and this anomaly is spreading northward along the coast.
• The rise will be compounded by a coinciding peak in the tidal cycle — together, these factors threaten record storm surges and coastal erosion around Christmas.

Why El Niño raises sea levels

El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific rise above average, altering global weather patterns. One mechanism behind sea level rise is thermal expansion: as water warms, its volume increases, causing the ocean to literally expand. At the same time, the phenomenon intensifies precipitation along the Pacific coast, especially in Southern California, pushing water levels even higher, while more frequent and powerful storms mean larger waves and so-called king tides — extremely high tides that increase the risk of coastal flooding.

The convergence of factors amplifies the effect

What causes particular concern is not El Niño itself, but the fact that it is叠加 onto several other processes simultaneously. The phenomenon is developing against the backdrop of long-term sea level rise driven by global warming, and by coincidence, the peak of the tidal cycle is expected around the same time as the peak of El Niño itself. According to Merrifield, by Christmas these factors will likely push sea levels to record heights and create large waves and king tides at the same time — and combined with intensified precipitation in Southern California, this could lead to severe coastal flooding, saltwater intrusion into groundwater, and accelerated shoreline erosion. Deputy Director for Planning and Preparedness at the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services Nate Ortiz confirmed that state authorities are already ramping up winter preparedness.

The same episode already hitting Africa

The California forecast is part of the same global phenomenon that the African Development Bank has estimated will cause $10–20 billion in losses for the most vulnerable African countries, while Central Asia, including Kazakhstan, is promised not drought but an elevated risk of precipitation and heatwaves. Meteorologists are already comparing the El Niño forming this year to the strongest episodes on record, and the California forecast of record sea levels is further confirmation that the same climate mechanism can produce completely different but equally serious consequences in different parts of the planet simultaneously.

Author's conclusion

The list of forecasts associated with the current El Niño is growing faster than the climate episode itself is forming: an economic blow to Africa, the risk of downpours and heat in Central Asia, and now record sea levels off California. For the reader, this is another reason to treat claims of the "strongest El Niño on record" not as journalistic exaggeration but as a working hypothesis that meteorologists and climatologists around the world will be testing in the coming months — from African farmlands to the California coast.